Saturday, 13 July 2019

how people eraning in 2090s?

What will the 2090s look like?

  1. The biggest change to the labor market in the last decade has been the addition of almost 2 billion laborers to the market.  Opening both China and India to the world has led to tremendous pressures on salaries and labor standards in the industrialised world.  Thus there has been downward pressure on salaries and standards on the international system.  The wages of the world in the future will be set in Mumbai and Shanghai, not N.Y.C. and Los Angeles.  The West will have to compete on the high end in knowledge work, but also will be pressurized by India where educated workers consider 3,000 dollar a year work to be a "good" wage.  Under most threat is work that can be outsourced, only menial service jobs that cannot be sent overseas will be left for the uneducated majority.  This will lead to continued downward pressure on wages for these workers until they will look to protectionism to "save" them.  This ultimately will fail and either we will progress to new forms of capitalism or the mean salaries of these workers will adjust downwards.  On the high end  I see similiar threats.  Only very high level knowledge workers will prosper in this scenario.  As artificial intlelligence evolves we will see even them replaced.  We must evolve a new system that is politically sustainable to the individual countries/regions and adapt.  I am unsure as to the outcome.
  1. There is nothing new about technology eliminating jobs -- that's been going on since the earliest farming began to put hunter-gatherers out of work.
    No one can really predict what the jobs of the future will be, but that's the whole point -- innovation frees up labor, making it available to satisfy entirely unforeseen human needs.   If you are using this site it might occur to you than even 20 - 30 years ago no one foresaw all the labor to be needed for managing websites and online social networking.

    I know what's NOT going to happen -- people won't be idle and unemployed en masse. People are incredibly useful and flexible economic resources; entrepreneurs and managers will always figure out ways to make money off this resource.

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